Exposure and amplitude limits for eradicating populations with inherited cellular states
Abstract
How much intervention is necessary to eradicate a finite population whose cells inherit a molecular state, when the intervention may be chosen using the entire population history? We prove two independent obstructions for finite-type branching populations under bounded predictable feedback. The first is an exposure floor: a baseline extinction supersolution together with a componentwise bound on the intervention generator produces a family of supersolutions indexed by the remaining budget, and the resulting population barrier retains founder-count dependence without assuming that families are independent under feedback; for identical founders it gives survival probability at least . The second is an amplitude floor: a single supersolution valid across the whole admitted action range bounds survival away from zero for every policy, at every budget and every horizon. Necessary and sufficient exposures match at order above the amplitude threshold, and an outward-rounded Taylor calculation certifies a finite-time policy at exposure with risk below from one founder of the two-site molecular source. We then locate the amplitude threshold exactly in that source as a function of memory size: the critical intrinsic erasure is bracketed to six decimals for sites and rises from to , so at five to eight sites no policy of amplitude eradicates, whatever its budget or duration; explicit rational supersolutions bound the surviving probability below by , , and at . A second actuator repairs this: added death on protected states has an -uniform threshold , gives a dimension-free sufficient exposure , and attains the exposure floor up to a factor below . We also record a preparation-dependent failure of monotonicity in erasure, and conditional concentration and administered-amount lower bounds. Probability proofs are conventional; source certificates and the finite-time enclosure are exact finite computations; selected algebra is checked in Lean.